First Tip-Off (16) UMBC vs (16) Howard · Tue Mar 17 · 6:40 PM ET
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Full bracket with methodology
Injury Adjustments▶
Applied to blended rating after KenPom + Torvik merge
Upset Picks▶
Games where the model favors the lower seed
Round-by-Round Win Probabilities▶
Model confidence for each predicted winner
Methodology
KenPom Efficiency Ratings: Each team gets an adjusted efficiency margin (AdjEM) representing expected point differential per 100 possessions vs an average D-I opponent on a neutral court. Higher is better.
Torvik T-Rank Ratings: Bart Torvik's system uses similar tempo-free efficiency metrics but applies recency weighting, downweighting games older than 40 days. This better reflects how teams are playing right now heading into the tournament.
Injury Adjustments: Teams with significant injuries receive a negative delta applied on top of the blended rating, based on player importance (usage rate, on/off splits, role). UNC losing projected top-5 pick Caleb Wilson gets the largest adjustment at -9.0.
Blended Win Probability: Each team's base rating is a 50/50 blend of KenPom AdjEM and Torvik AdjEM. Injury deltas are then applied on top of the blended rating. Win probability uses log5: P(A wins) = 1 / (1 + 10^(-diff/12)), where diff = blended + injury-adjusted rating difference. A 10-point gap yields roughly 80% win probability.
Weighted Simulation: Each game is decided by a weighted coin flip using the blended probability. If a team has a 75% win probability, it wins 75% of the time across simulations. Hit "Simulate Again" for a different bracket. Every run is unique, but favorites still win more often than underdogs.
Built by Connor Florczyk · Model: KenPom + Torvik blended AdjEM + injury deltas → log5 weighted simulation (k=12)
Rankings via KenPom.com & BartTorvik.com · Data as of March 16, 2026 · For entertainment purposes only
This site is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected to the NCAA, March Madness, KenPom, or BartTorvik. "March Madness" is a registered trademark of the NCAA. All team names, logos, and related marks are the property of their respective owners. Statistical data is used for informational and entertainment purposes only. This tool does not constitute gambling advice. Simulated results are probabilistic and should not be relied upon for wagering decisions.